Analisis Reaksi Pasar Terhadap Pengumuman Stimulus Fiskal

Fitrianti, Novenda (2026) Analisis Reaksi Pasar Terhadap Pengumuman Stimulus Fiskal. Undergraduate thesis, Universitas Katolik Musi Charitas.

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Abstract

This study aims to analyze the reaction of the Indonesian capital market to the fiscal stimulus announcement on September 12, 2025, which was distributed through the state-owned banks (Bank Himbara). Market reaction was measured by examining the differences in Abnormal Return (AR) and Trading Volume Activity (TVA) before and after the event using the event study method. A quantitative approach was employed with secondary data from 160 selected companies obtained through purposive sampling from a population of 957 listed firms. The observation period covered for trading days, two days before, the event day, and two days after the announcement. Hypothesis testing was conducted using the Wilcoxon Signed Rank Test. The result show No. significant difference in Abnormal Return before and after the announcement, while a significant difference exists in Trading Volume Activity. These findings indicate that the fiscal stimulus contained valuable information that was quickly absorbed by the market, consistent with the Semi-Strong Form Efficient Market Hypothesis and Signalling Theory. The significant change in trading volume activity that investors perceived the fiscal stimulus as a credible policy signal.

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