ANALISIS PERAMALAN PERMINTAAN PRODUK ROTI DI CV MUSI HARUM PALEMBANG

Huwandy, Katharina Fallensya (2023) ANALISIS PERAMALAN PERMINTAAN PRODUK ROTI DI CV MUSI HARUM PALEMBANG. Working Paper. Universitas Katolik Musi charitas, Palembang, Indonesia. (Submitted)

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Abstract

CV Musi Harum is a company that produces stuffed bread products. The process of producing bread products is seen from the number of requests received. Demand for period October 2021 was 831.605 packs. From the results of production it can be seen that the production does not meet the number of requests requested. Therefore, forecasting is needed to determine the best forecast for the production of industrial products in order to meet demand. With this forecasting using the Linear Trend method, Quadratic Trend method, and Exponential Trend method to see the comparison of Mean Square Error the smallest. The Linear Trend method is obtained with Mean Square Erro (MSE) results of 4.367.570.220,19 which is the smallest of Quadratic Trend and Exponential Trend, the results of linear trend method forecasting for period 2 are 856.407,60 packs, period 3 are 866.344,50 packs, period 4 are 876.281,40 packs, period 5 are 886.218,30 and period 12 as many as 955.776,60 packs. Then forecasting with the Linear trend method that is used to plan the future production process. Keywords: Linear Trend Method, MSE Demand Forecast

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